Weather… and energy prices: will it be cold this fall and winter?

As energy prices soar and the risk of shortages rises, there is a question on everyone’s mind: will it be cold this winter? It’s been a long time since the stakes have been so crucial…

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Once the summer page has been turned, with its share of heat records, its fires and its drought, eyes are now turning to the months to come, with a central question: will the cold be there? And with him heating bills that promise to be painful? We can measure the public health consequences, but also the economic and social consequences that this will have this year, when the prices of gas, electricity, pellets and fuel oil are all reaching peaks.

Weather science is far from exact. Meteorologists therefore no longer speak of forecasts but tendencies, as soon as we look ahead to the next few weeks, the next few months. By studying the global climate system, in particular by analyzing the surface and depth temperatures of the oceans, Météo France forecasters are counting on different three-month scenarios. More reliable on temperatures than on precipitation. And more reliable for winter trends than for summer trends.

A warmer than normal fall

In fact, the most probable scenario for the period September, October, November is that of an autumn ” warmer than normal in France according to Météo France. The organization statistically grants 50% probability to this scenario, against 30% for an autumn in line with normal and 20% colder. To explain it, Météo France puts forward ” a context favorable to a shift towards northern Europe of the ocean flow and the circulation of disturbances “.

A still very uncertain winter

Beyond November, we remain very cautious, some embark on acrobatic scenarios, we prefer to avoid it », says one at Météo France in Villeneuve-d’Ascq. We can in fact find very contrasting scenarios on various private forecasting sites, without being able to draw a general trend… Example: when the Weather Channel announces a colder winter than the previous ones, expects a milder winter. .. ” The trend has been for rather mild winters in recent years, with temperatures struggling to drop below zero in northern France. », Comments Mario Danel, amateur but confirmed meteorologist, in Lilles. The surprise would be to get out of this trend.

Besides the thermometer, one should not underestimate the amount of precipitation, which will be decisive in the coming weeks for an exit, or not, from the current drought alerts. If it has started to rain again in recent days, we are still very far from seeing the effects on the level of groundwater, at its lowest on this summer outing.

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